Quantum — from a pipe dream to real-world applications
By Matt Kinsella, Maverick Ventures
What is quantum?
This is the question being asked more and more as quantum becomes mainstream. With all of the Avengers: Endgame hype — seriously, how does the quantum realm even work? Everyone now seems interested in quantum technologies because they allow us to do things we’ve never been able to do.
Let’s start from the beginning.
Over the last 60 years, tech innovation has been governed by Moore’s Law, which roughly states the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (a proxy for processing power) doubles every 18 months. This advancement has fueled corporate growth and tech innovation, and in turn, has been a major driver of global GDP. But Moore’s Law is hitting its natural end as transistors have gotten so small that improvements from here are challenging the laws of physics. We’ve literally hit an atom-sized wall. One way to break through that wall and to progress forward from a computing, tech, and global growth perspective is to move to a completely different modality.
That’s where quantum enters the picture. Harnessing quantum theory has stoked many imaginations since Einstein called it “spooky.”
Quantum computers perform computations using quantum bits (also known as qubits). Qubits are difficult to work with because they’re new, complicated, finicky and typically require environments that are colder than outer space to operate. Because of these challenges, companies are enabling qubits in novel ways. There are still a number of other scientific and engineering challenges to surmount before humanity has a working, generalizable quantum computer that can do interesting and important things, but the momentum is gaining.
The major upside to quantum computers is that they mobilize the power of subatomic particles to perform calculations much faster than standard computers, especially sticky problems like optimization that our current computers find very difficult to handle. Quantum computers are likely to be so powerful that they will theoretically be able to unlock encryption systems and predict the behavior of molecules. Other imagined applications span the scary to the hopeful. And thus, the quantum race is on.
The ramifications of the quantum race are great. Whoever can harness quantum technologies first will gain commercial and geopolitical advantages. Like the space race of the sixties, governments around the world are investing heavily in quantum computing research for economic gain and security. Losing, or even coming in second, is not an exciting outcome for governments. That’s why countries like Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, Australia, Canada, Singapore, and the EU have announced investments of €1.66B in quantum computing. The U.S. passed a bill last year funding the National Quantum Initiative Act: a 10-year national strategy to advance quantum computing by committing $1.275B in invested dollars. The biggest investment (spoiler alert) has been made by China, which has reportedly designated nearly $11B to fund the National Laboratory for Quantum Science.
This power-hungry race stems from the potential rewards of quantum success — military and commercial advantages that could touch every nook and cranny of the economy, from powerful computing to insightful AI, message encryption or code-busting.
Let’s double click on encryption. Our most modern encryption, which protects email, messaging, bank transfers, etc. is built around a computer’s inability to factor large numbers. A quantum computer, however, can factor large numbers quickly because of the ability to simulate multiple or even infinite scenarios simultaneously. Code-breakers have been trying to stay one step ahead of encryption for centuries. Anyone who has ever seen Imitation Game will remember Alan Turing and team’s race to decrypt the Enigma machine the Nazis used to encrypt their messages. Quantum computers would be a new tool in that same tool kit and new encryption methodologies will need to be put in place to make them “quantum resistant.”
The Chinese have already accomplished one stunning example of this. They have shown the ability to instantaneously send a quantum encrypted message to a satellite from the ground. They achieved this by sending the message to space with a particle that was entangled (we’ll get into entanglement in a later blog post, but for now it is one of the peculiarities that exist in the quantum world) with a particle remaining on earth with the sender. When and if one of the entangled particles is disturbed, the other particle immediately reacts as well. Hence, if a message is intercepted, the entangled particle will instantaneously alert the sender to the compromised nature of the message. The sender would know with 100% certainty that a message has been intercepted. Some have described this 2018 event as a “Sputnik” moment that then fueled the US to announce the National Quantum Initiative early this year.
Quantum technologies are closer than we imagine. They already have an impact on our day-to-day lives, and such impact is quickly expanding. Importantly, while much of the focus in the media has been on a generalized computer, rest assured that these powerful insights have many nearer term product opportunities. Even though quantum computers can be hard to explain, it’s past time to start understanding. Quantum is going to continue attracting billions of dollars from VC firms and catching the eyes of research programs looking to disrupt everything from life sciences to national security.
Where will it go next? Stay tuned for more blog posts exploring the exciting world of quantum technologies.
The views expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s) and are not necessarily the views of Maverick Capital, Ltd. or any of its affiliates. They are not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice.
